[cozzyd]

The inferred IFR from serological prevalance and deaths in NYC is ~1%. NYC's demographics skew favorably compared to the nation, but assuming ~60% of the country would get COVID-19 if not for restrictions, 2 million is right on the money.

[greedo]

And this also ignores those who survive COVID-19. Roughly 5% are being hospitalized with potential long term effects. Everyone assumes that we're over the hump. The only place in the US that I would consider over the hump is NYC. Everywhere else has nowhere to go until herd immunity is reached.

[pnako]

Assuming 12.38 million people would die of it, 12.38 million people would die of it.

Stop assuming things.

[cozzyd]

It's a conservative assumption based on a low estimate of R_0 without mitigations.

It's hard to make inferences about the world without assumptions.

[selectodude]

You're the one trying to make OP prove a negative.