Open source creative and professional tools are on par with proprietary tools (MS Office, Adobe) in terms of function and UI,
GUI applications are written for every conceivable setting a non-technical user would need,
Gaming is easier (it's getting better)
And, Ubuntu, Mint and other popular distros streamline everything even more so that even an idiot (and lots of people are idiots when it comes to tech) can use it.
Once those things happen, there is a chance we'll carve out more of the market, and create a snowball effect. If 10% of the market starts using Linux because OEMs preinstalled it to cut costs, software devs will notice, and it will only get better from there as more popular programs are ported to Linux.
TBH we don't require open source desktop software equivalents to popular windows stuff, just good enough web based software. I don't think Adobe is #1 in their market anymore, there's a lot of competition from things like Figma. Same with office, we use Google Drive and so I feel like it should easier than ever to switch!
The nearest linux has been from dominance is back in the glory days of Android when it was thought mobile would conquer everything. Now it's increasingly clear it is going to dominate only the mobile market, and even then the power uses of phones are extremely limited.
Except Linux isn't exposed to user space, and its syscalls aren't part of NDK stable APIs, so Android Next can use BSD, Fuchsia, NT, NuttX or whatever Google comes up with and very few would notice.
In that regard the only thing I appreciate is their approach to securing native code.
As for everything else, kind of agree.
10 years and still a broken NDK experience, Java stuck on a pseudo Java 8 subset, every IO the best practices get rebooted, Vulkan requires cloning github repos, already went through 3 animation frameworks, JetPack Composer still has no idea how to match existing GUI tooling, ....
The developer experience is a horror show, and the people who control it have been making head-scratching decisions for years (you forgot to mention releasing libraries via SDK manager and git repos long after switching the recommended build system to Gradle and encouraging people to use Maven repos for dependencies), but that doesn't mean the OS architecture isn't sensible. Especially for current app-consuming use cases, the security model makes far more sense than MacOS's security model.
Project Treble and Modular System Components are that stable ABI, but it doesn't help if Google doesn't put on the Play Store license agreements that OEMs are obliged to push updates.
Open source creative and professional tools are on par with proprietary tools (MS Office, Adobe) in terms of function and UI,
GUI applications are written for every conceivable setting a non-technical user would need,
Gaming is easier (it's getting better)
And, Ubuntu, Mint and other popular distros streamline everything even more so that even an idiot (and lots of people are idiots when it comes to tech) can use it.
Once those things happen, there is a chance we'll carve out more of the market, and create a snowball effect. If 10% of the market starts using Linux because OEMs preinstalled it to cut costs, software devs will notice, and it will only get better from there as more popular programs are ported to Linux.