[themoops36]

Thanks for saying this. The "Priced In" fallacy has been on full display since the pandemic began. As late as a few weeks ago people were still talking about a "V-Shaped Recovery" and now the narrative is changing to a long, slow recovery.

I have no claim to know exactly what's going on, but I don't think the markets are efficient, and I don't think they're random. I think decent theories are that the markets are reacting to unprecedented Fed action and/or there are a lot of retail investors attempting to "buy the dip". It's probably fair to say there are large disconnects from business fundamentals and what it actually means when economies shut down.

Howard Marks put it in a way I find compelling: "The bottom is when there's no more optimism left" (paraphrasing). If I had to bet (and I am), I'd say there is a lot of wishful thinking going on. People want mid-March to be the bottom, so they buy, and so prices go up. Prices trend up and so... more people buy. Feels like a ton of confirmation bias with big consequences later on.

I actually think we might see a change in investor sentiment once things do start opening up and everyone realizes the damage done (many businesses closed, defaults, still-high unemployment, etc.) Again, I'm no expert but it feels like a good time to be fearful w/r/t investments

[ashtonkem]

Having worked in finance as a non-trader, people underestimate how group think-y professional traders can be.

[frockington1]

Hasn't it already been pretty V-shaped? Sure some sectors are going to get hit harder than others but markets are already back to levels from a year ago

[ModernMech]

"Recovery" refers to the economy, not the stock market. You can't say the economy has recovered yet while unemployment is still going up and GDP is still going down. The idea of a "V-shaped recovery" came from the notion that demand dropped and unemployment spiked because the government imposed lock downs, and once those lock downs were removed everything would just snap back to the way they were pre-corona.