[davesmylie]

> So unless they can maintain this type of lockdown for the next 6 months, they will see a resurgence, just as they see every year corona viruses spread starting in June.

The difference is, is that most corona viruses are present all year round, and in significant numbers.

Provided the border remains secure (easy enough on a remote island with only a few international airports), and the existing cases are allowed to burn out, with effectively zero cases remaining by the time we reach "normal", I don't see a resurgence over winter as being that likely.

As a bonus, due to lock down, our influenza numbers are also hugely down as compared to most years. Whilst this absolutely won't be eliminated, I do expect numbers through out winter to remain lower than normal because of the severe reduction in numbers at the start of winter.