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by Marsymars
2232 days ago
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> I personally find this alarming that there is still widespread community spread. You should probably expect it - you only end community spread in short order with R=0. With, say R=0.5, you get something like a ten day half-life for number cases. Furthermore, tests tend to have ramped up after social restrictions, so number of new cases isn't a useful figure outside of the context of % of positive tests, and deaths are a lagging indicator. In both France and Italy seven weeks of hard lockdown have only reduced deaths to about a quarter in that time-frame. |
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