[rskar]

Per https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-exactly-how-much-i..., retirees have a lifestyle of roughly $60k or so per year. At a more modest $50k, and assuming a portfolio of working assets from which to draw this $50k, that would be something like a portfolio of about $830k at 6%. Assuming a 6% yearly net gain on investments, then if you can somehow sock away about $33k per year, you might achieve FIRE status in 15 years.

So there you have it: The event horizon is based on how realistically you can soldier on and invest 66% of your target retirement income each year for 15 years. Not sure how realistic that is for most people, let alone this hypothetical 40-something in the doldrums.

I'm using 6% for sake of argument for no good reason, but it's the usual rate used in converting a pension into a lump-sum. It is possible to do much better - stock market has been about 8% to 11% on average. So maybe 6% works as a fudge-factor in this sort of planning versus life's many ups and downs.

Anyway, if one had 30 years towards this "$50k FIRE", then the yearly "at 6%" investing is $10k; at 20 years, $21k; 10 years, $56k.

[mi100hael]

Conventional wisdom is 4% withdrawal for year 1, and then inflationary adjustments after [0].

So for $50k, that's $1.25M principal. If you can wait and supplement with social security or part time work so you only need to withdraw about $35k, then it's $875k principal.

[0]: https://www.fool.com/retirement/what-is-a-safe-withdrawal-ra...

[pfranz]

Don't forget taxes! Both on contribution and withdraw. Those under 50 are capped at $19k /year for 401k and $7k /year for IRA. Keep in mind you can't start withdrawing until age 59 1/2.

So any money accrued above those limits will be taxed and any money you need to withdraw before that age will need to be separate and taxed.

[junar]

> Both on contribution and withdraw

To clarify, the same money generally isn't taxed twice. Contributions to pre-tax retirement accounts are not taxed, but distributions are. On the other hand, contributions to Roth accounts come from taxable compensation, but qualified distributions are tax-free. Finally, you buy taxable investments with after-tax principal, and only its earnings are taxed later.

> Keep in mind you can't start withdrawing until age 59 1/2

This doesn't apply to taxable investments, obviously, but even for retirement accounts, there are ways around that.

https://www.madfientist.com/how-to-access-retirement-funds-e...