[pmiller2]

Well, do you have research on how many excess deaths there would be if states started opening up now? California is taking a cautious approach by only opening in stages after cases have stabilized, and only after testing is present. Do you have a better plan than what a group of public health experts have come up with?

[umvi]

> Do you have a better plan than what a group of public health experts have come up with?

As far as I can tell, public health experts (and basically all medical experts) are in over their heads on this one. It's like 1970s computer scientists issuing guidance on a stuxnet-esque infection. Sure, they are the experts in that they know more about computer science than other people, but they also have no experience with something like stuxnet-esque worms and so... how valuable is their expertise? "We recommend turning off all computers until further notice to stop the spread of stuxnet. Meanwhile, we will take 6-12 months or more to try and reverse engineer it and then we will issue further guidance." Except... "turn off your computer for a year" isn't going to fly with the general population. After so many months there will be riots and people will start disobeying.

[pmiller2]

And, what knowledge and/or credentials do you have to base the conclusion that "public health experts (and basically all medical experts) are in over their heads" on? Do you know what contained the outbreak in China, South Korea, and other countries?

[umvi]

> And, what knowledge and/or credentials do you have to base the conclusion that "public health experts (and basically all medical experts) are in over their heads" on?

Nobody alive on earth right now has ever experienced anything like this before at this scale. So by definition, there are no "veterans", there is no one with any experience whatsoever, just people who did case studies of past pandemics when air travel didn't exist and people that ran some simulations. Inexperienced people, no matter how expert they are, are terrible at predicting the future (re: the last 20 years of climate change expertise). "Oops, the model was wrong again, but we learned more for next time!"

> Do you know what contained the outbreak in China

How do we know it's contained? China kicked out all western journalists and nobody can audit any of their numbers. China is not exactly a clean/sanitary place, I wouldn't put it past CCP to simply cover it up to save face. Or maybe they realized it's not really as bad as it seems and they just let it run rampant.

How is Japan faring so well despite not sheltering in place and not testing?

[pmiller2]

Japan? Not well:

> There are just five ICU beds per 100,000 people in Japan, less than half the number in Italy, and doctors' associations have warned that hospitals are already stretched thin. [0]

I notice you skipped South Korea. What stopped it there?

Glad you are admitting your own ignorance. Now, if you would just listen to the people who do know a little something about viral epidemics and their containment, you could cure that little condition.

In the meantime, you should stop spewing these dangerous ideas. You sound exactly like the Texas Lt. Governor. And, let me tell you: neither I nor my family are dying for you.

---

[0]: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japan-state-of-emergency-extend...

[umvi]

> I notice you skipped South Korea. What stopped it there?

South Korea is anomalous. Has literally any other country been able to replicate their success?

> Glad you are admitting your own ignorance. Now, if you would just listen to the people who do know a little something about viral epidemics and their containment, you could cure that little condition.

Containment/minimizing covid-19 deaths is a very short-sighted variable to optimize for. Leaders need to weigh the cost of containment vs. the cost of prolonged lockdown/economic collapse. I have yet to see you acknowledge containment policies as having any downsides whatsoever. I don't think you really understand how desperate the situation is from an economic standpoint. The Fed can't just print money to solve every problem; otherwise, why work? Why not just have the Fed print every citizen $1M?

> In the meantime, you should stop spewing these dangerous ideas. You sound exactly like the Texas Lt. Governor. And, let me tell you: neither I nor my family are dying for you.

If you or your family are extra vulnerable, I'm afraid you'll have to avoid contact with others until a vaccine is developed. In the meantime, I'm not content with the current solution of "halt the economy/destroy lives/print money indefinitely". I feel the best course of action is to let the disease spread normally with a few extra measures in place to slow it down (social distancing/masks). And it seems a lot of governors agree with me - many states are starting to re-open. In my opinion, covid-19 is not as bad as it seems. Our data is biased because it comes mainly from hospitals while the majority of the cases go unnoticed. Things will return to normal.

[_y5hn]

Taiwan. And your reasoning is just plain wrong. Measures bring R well below 1, that together with broad testing is when you start opening up.

[pmiller2]

South Korea contained the epidemic with massive testing and contact tracing. There is literally no reason why that could not be done here, once we get the number of cases down via lockdown measures. But, it would be foolish to start opening things up until the infrastructure to do that testing and contact tracing is in place.

If the choice is saving capitalism or saving 450,000 lives, I choose lives. I don't give a shit about the fortunes of corporate shareholders, landlords, bankers, etc., when nearly 1 in 700 lives are at stake. How about you?

[jfnixon]

Bingo for the Japan observation.

[kalleboo]

> Do you have a better plan than what a group of public health experts have come up with?

Sweden's response is also based on public health experts. And in Sweden, the apolitical public health agency is fully in charge, politicians meddling with their work is against the Swedish constitution. And the Swedish public health agency has stated that their response takes into account comprehensive long-term public health and not just short-term.

Is Sweden's response wrong? Maybe. But do you have a better plan than what a group of public health experts have come up with?

[sfj]

I think that, instead of requiring locking everyone in their homes to save a few, we should give people the option to isolate themselves from everyone else. This would entail free rent and clean food delivery sponsored by the government.

This would then reduce covid-19 to a risk factor on par with every other self-inflicted risk. If you worry about your health, stay home, if not go live your life. It would actually be compatible with our constitution as well, which would be nice.

[AstralStorm]

One thing I'm not seeing happening is surveys and epidemiology related to impact of various measures undertaken, to keep the ones most effective and lose the others that are superfluous.

This could be done by comparing measures taken in a big random sample of confirmed cases with big random sample of general population.