[filoleg]

Once places open up in a few months, I expect a massive short-term surge in demand for AirBnB lodging.

I know for a fact that by the end of summer (assuming places open up like planned), I will start traveling again. And I will be doing no less traveling this year than I would any other year. Of course, that won't be the case for everyone, but keeping that in mind, the 50% revenue drop seems like a pretty reasonable expectation.

[nopriorarrests]

How many people will be okay staying in some location which is not properly disinfected, unlike a room in a chain hotel?

How may hosts will me okay returning to their place knowing that some strangers were living there?

Even if everything, including international flights, open up in autumn, I think people will prefer hotels for a long time.

So, Airbnb had an average Q1, Q2 is dead in the water, Q3 might bring, idk, 10-20% compared to 2019? and Q4, maybe 50%?

Overall, I can hardly see 50% drop YoY.

[IkmoIkmo]

There's no vaccine yet. Given how many people are asymptomatic, I expect the virus to create a new wave in a business as usual scenario. I think people will be quite cautious, particularly in international travel. Local bookings should probably be higher than usual, foreign visits much lower than normal, but it's mostly foreign visits which drives airbnb worldwide as far as I know.

Second I really wonder if things will open up as per usual. There's a lot of talk that we'll see things stay restrictive for the rest of the year. Many countries for example mandate face masks in public transport. Some countries mandate offices to fill to at most 50% capacity, mandating 6 feet of distance. There's many countries which expect that to be the norm once things like restaurants open again as well. Basically the current supermarket model: you can shop, but only 50% of the normal occupancy. We'll likely see this for busses, for stores, offices, museums, parks etc. I don't expect a massive short-term surge myself.

[asdff]

In a recession? I think not, even without a pandemic.

[ashconnor]

Our CEO emailed today we are work from home until September. I'm told Amazon tech are work from home until October.

At this point I doubt I'll see my office in 2020. I definitely won't be travelling.

[filoleg]

Good for you. For us, it was announced as an optional WFH, entirely at the employee discretion (unless they are in a role that has hard requirements of being in the office, like hardware engineering), until October.

To me, that sounds like a perfect opportunity to work remote on a nice beach during the day, and enjoy my time during the evening in a new place, without having to take days off for that. I get concerns of some people like you, and I am not trying to diminish your choice to stay at home. But your take on this is not representative of what everyone else will be doing (and neither is mine, hence why I expect AirBnB to still have that 50% revenue drop), so I wouldn't discount my original point based on that.