I think the consensus of 'over' is when the world one way or the other goes back to well...as normal as it's gonna get. Personally, I think that'll be when there's better treatments for the effects of covid, I'm not too believing of a vaccine hitting anytime under 2 years.
But if we could halve the death-rate or more, it'd be pretty good steps towards getting back to normal. Also, if we could actually get people to wear masks and take it seriously. That'd go a long way towards quelling it.
That's the million dollar question.
When I feel not unsafe moving my family cross country?
We'll obviously need to accept some level of risk to do that, unless we're willing to wait for vaccines or herd immunity, as you pointed out. But it may well be a year.
But if we could halve the death-rate or more, it'd be pretty good steps towards getting back to normal. Also, if we could actually get people to wear masks and take it seriously. That'd go a long way towards quelling it.