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by bobf
2238 days ago
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The study that showed 21% positive antibody results came from self-selected testing of people physically shopping at grocery and big-box stores. Unfortunately, that ultimately doesn't effectively represent the overall population of NYC at all. This was posted by the Head of Decision Intelligence at Google about the study a day after the "21%" headline was published: https://towardsdatascience.com/were-21-of-new-york-city-resi... |
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Yes, as the Google article points out, the study is probably an undercount. IIRC, the samples were taken from mid-day grocery shoppers. If so, this would push the real NYC IFR higher, possibly into the 2% range. And as the Diamond Princess has shown, the real IFR continues to climb for weeks, as the final ICU patients succumb.
This would make the ultimate costs of herd immunity higher.