| > • America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. I suspect we'll still be the only dominant global power in 2040. > • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. The largest trading partner of every nation you listed is China. The idea of an Japan, Tawian, Philippines, Vietnam, etc forming an anti-China alliance is as absurd as mexico and canada forming an anti-US alliance. It makes no economic, political or historical sense. But anything can happen. It's more likely they'll form an anti-US alliance considering Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, etc was invaded by the US at one point or another. But the likelihood of that is 0. > • India and Europe will act more and more independently of the US. India has always acted independently of the US. They were one of the major non-aligned nations during the cold war. > • Turkey will seek to assert itself in former Ottoman territories, possibly leading to a period of peace in the Middle East if successful. What? You think Turkey will be able to push out the US/EU/Russia/etc from the middle east? Even if the US/EU/Russia/etc left, you think Turkey will be able to challenge Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc for dominance in the middle east? I couldn't disagree with you more on the geopolitics. As for your technology predictions, I unfortunately disagree with you on everything. We'll have self-driving cars, there will be groudbreaking developments in computer hardware technology ( quantum computers, VR, GPU, memory, etc ) and real meat consumption will rise as more of the underdeveloped nations get wealthy enough to afford real meat. I have no issues with the rest of your predictions as they seem more likely than your previous predictions. |
I suspect that China lags in military and economic development, that Covid-19 is an inflection point in their growth, and that they will have too many domestic issues to solve before reasserting themselves on the world's stage. Meanwhile the US is going to steal "One Belt One Road" and do it ourselves.