[roywiggins]

Everyone knows that the stock market will eventually drop a lot, due to some crisis or other. It will happen, to a near certainty. But the cost of maintaining a short position long term will exceed the payout, that's why it's really hard to make money off short selling. Otherwise it would be free money every decade or so.

Stockpiling costs money, and it costs more money the longer it takes for your bet to pay out, just like a short. Masks expire, rubber perishes. You have to bet on the timing, not just that it will eventually happen. A 100-year event will take 100 years to pay out on average, so how much money can you afford to lock away in anticipation of something that might not happen in your lifetime? The opportunity cost isn't zero.