[roywiggins]

Even without the prospect of seizure, it's not free to maintain a stockpile, or maintain a short. So you're also making a bet that it will happen sooner rather than later- if it takes 100 years, your equipment will be rusted or obsolete and you'll probably be dead by then. And you'll have paid every year to maintain it, money you could have put into a slightly less risky and more liquid investment that would have long since paid out.

All the day-to-day costs and risks can just totally swamp the potential upside, even before the regulatory risk of seizure or being forced to sell your stockpile at pre-crisis prices. Price-gouging laws are already on the books, so it's not like it would be that much of a surprise.