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by cameldrv 2241 days ago
Obviously there will be false positives and false negatives with this app. If you could catch even 50% of cases though it would go a long ways towards stopping spread. The question is whether you can get that without a huge false positive rate. My guess is that you can, since it appears that the primary transmission mechanism is sustained indoor contact, within about 15 feet. You could probably increase the accuracy if you could detect being indoors.

On the cost issue, the obvious solution is to make testing free and easy, and to provide a financial incentive to get tested quickly after the app alerts them.

1 comments

> The question is whether you can get that without a huge false positive rate. My guess is that you can

No, you can't. The virus spreads exponentially and the app is suppose to keep up. In other words, you get an exponential number of alarms.

> On the cost issue, the obvious solution is to make testing free and easy

Cost is not the limiting factor. Equipment, reagents and time is. We could have easily beaten the pandemic by now if simply going from door to door and taking a smear test was an option.

the whole point of the app is to isolate people that have been in contact with positive cases before they become contagious.

if everyone has the app, you won't have an exponential growth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs