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by Bubbadoo 2235 days ago
With slackening demand for many products that might be considered more discretionary, we're going to see a unprecedented move by producers to maintain price pressure. Additionally, we presently have over 30 million people who are out of work and that's just what U3 is reporting. As you point out, there aren't going to be many people in a position to buy cars, electronics, home improvements, etc. Oh and those trillions of $ the government is hard at work giving away is neither going to the businesses they say they want to help nor you, the citizen. In fact, almost all of the government's pandemic actions really haven't helped those who really have a need.

On the non-discretionary front, various food items are reportedly in short-supply. Nothing is further from the truth. But with 80% of the restaurants down (a rumored 40% says they're closed for good), many distributors are out of business. Milk, beef, poultry should be seeing huge deflationary price moves. But by faking the shortages, the producers keep prices artificially high or even higher than pre-pandemic.

For more info on how this turns out, please research the fall of the Roman Empire.

2 comments

Respectfully disagree about the food situation.

The supply chain is bifurcated between industrial supply (e.g. restaurants) and personal use (e.g. grocery).

Industrial consumption has flatlined, nobody's going out.

Personal consumption is through the roof -- which is where the shortages are coming from.

Manufacturing cannot switch over fast enough, which is what is causing this glut.

I've found that restaurants are getting better at fixing this. We've seen a shortage of flour and eggs at our local market, but we got takeout from a local restaurant the other night and they offered us eggs, flour and milk at a completely reasonable price for a win for all.

Obviously not everyone can do this, but it seems like people are adapting at least!

Here in Australia, McDonald's is now selling bread, milk, and eggs.

It's a bit weird to say the least, getting your groceries with your Big Mac.

Wonder if restaurants could try doing blue apron style meal kits.
I think it's true though that the places that used to make food in bulk are struggling to repackage their food for consumers to buy in smaller quantities, that can certainly lead to fewer foods available. so there is potential for wasting enough food that leads to shortages, but there is a real loss of market potential for those farmers that were selling foods in bulk to restaurants.