| It may. I mean, oil just went negative a couple weeks ago so anything is possible. When analyzing an asset class you have to look at probabilities. Probability of Bitcoin going to zero during a financial crisis, where people are losing faith in local currencies around the world: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/Lebanon-PM-bla... https://cointelegraph.com/news/demand-for-bitcoin-surges-in-... ...is near zero. It's much more likely that adoption continues and Bitcoin matures as a financial asset class, not just in the developing world, but here in the U.S.: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/caitlin-long-to-build-a-crypto... https://decrypt.co/resources/bakkt https://bankless.substack.com/p/9-going-bankless-w-maker-and... As for the random walk and 100% of keys being lost...maybe if you march out the timeline long enough, the whole human species isn't going to exist any longer...so there's that. But I would argue strongly that Bitcoin (and Ethereum) has better prospects than any other digital infrastructure. In the mean time, the next few decades look very bright indeed. |
BTC has dropped 50% in value over the last three years, while the currency has inflated 5%. I know which I'd rather hold. Actually I'd rather hold neither, I'd rather be invested.
> It's much more likely that adoption continues and Bitcoin matures as a financial asset class, not just in the developing world, but here in the U.S.:
Fewer people care about it than practically ever:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin
> As for the random walk and 100% of keys being lost...maybe if you march out the timeline long enough, the whole human species isn't going to exist any longer...so there's that. But I would argue strongly that Bitcoin (and Ethereum) has better prospects than any other digital infrastructure.
20% of BTC has already been lost.
Probably more if you count Satoshi's wallet, which likely belongs to Paul Calder Le Roux, currently working with the DEA as penance for his many, many crimes. [1]
The price is largely propped up through a massive fraud perpetrated by Tether and Bitfinex. All the folks with those heavy, heavy bags have no interest in surfacing it, as it has become too big to fail within the crypto community.
[1] https://www.wired.com/story/was-bitcoin-created-by-this-inte...