[caseysoftware]

As Taleb has said many times: Don't tell me your predictions, show me your portfolio.

What did you do with this "obvious" information?

Did you go all in beforehand to make a killing and set yourself up for life? Did you make smaller bets and build an awesome rainy day fund? Did you sit on the sidelines and call the plays afterwards?

[chillacy]

The beautiful thing about trading is that you're either right or you're wrong. It's unforgiving in a way that punditry isn't. When you trade you have skin in the game, since past failures leave a permanent record on your portfolio, and people quickly learn that overconfidence is a liability.