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by travisp 2246 days ago
You're missing how many people have gotten infected and where. If a region has not yet had substantial transmission of the coronavirus, then it won't have many deaths. This would also be like saying in August, "the flu has only killed 100 people, I guess the flu won't be very deadly this year."

Approximately 0.25% of NYC's entire population has died of COVID, which is significantly more than die of the seasonal flu.
1 comments
SlowRobotAhead 2246 days ago
What region doesn’t have it? What model shows we aren’t near peak death now?

Edit: seriously asking questions.

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soperj 2246 days ago
I'm not sure if you're being wilfully ignorant at this point. There are 3.3 million confirmed cases world wide, in a population of 7.8 billion. Say they've missed 90% of cases, and we're actually at like 100 million cases, that's still only 1% of the world that has it. Massive regions like India, Africa don't have it.
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s1artibartfast 2246 days ago
Are we going to see 9-40 times more deaths this season from those regions?
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soperj 2246 days ago
all of africa has 1663 deaths, and india has 1154. So yes likely.
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s1artibartfast 2246 days ago
The origional question was:

>I don’t get it. I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1].

9-44x is 6-28 million covid deaths this year. Is this the number you think is likely?

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saalweachter 2246 days ago
> What region doesn’t have it?

Different regions have been infected to different degrees; in the worst hit areas like New York City up to 25% of the population may have caught it by now, but in many (most?) regions less than 1% of the population has been exposed so far.

> What model shows we aren’t near peak death now?

The question is, "What are you modeling?" Are you modeling what happens if the pandemic is contained at this point, and infection rates stay constant, or are you modeling a fast or slow spread to "herd immunity" (currently estimated at 85% of the population catching it)? In some situations, sure, it's almost over, in others, holy shit, it hasn't really started yet, this is the calm before the storm.

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