[pbourke]

> Meanwhile, plenty of randos on the internet did the straightforward epidemiological math in January/February and correctly deduced what was coming.

Plenty of epidemiologists did the math and were talking about the situation on Twitter in January and February. I know because I was following them before China locked down. There were articles and interviews in the press from actual experts (Marc Lipsitch, Neil Ferguson, Michael Mina, Michael Osterholm) during that time.

There were science journalists (Helen Branswell, Kai Kupferschmidt) writing back then who were great at contextualizing the emerging information about the epidemic.

Dr Nancy Messonnier at the CDC warned that "Disruption to everyday life might be severe" on February 25th.

Meanwhile, randos were racking up karma across the internet with their back of the napkin bullshit.