[q084yn39cptyth]

The missing variable in this is what happens when you lift lockdown in the absence of a treatment or vaccine.

Comparisons with eg Sweden at this point have always seemed strange to me because the whole point of a herd immunity approach is to increase exposure initially, which will necessarily involve deaths being less spread out. The real question is, after a year, what's the total excess mortality including non-COVID cases due to delayed treatments due to lockdown etc. (which are never included in the models, which focus on one disease, and would take time to manifest) ?

I'm not opposed to shelter in place but the endgame logic has always been unclear, and as such, classist. The right way to do it, for example, is to pay people to stay home.