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by Retric 2244 days ago
Overshoot is also a function of rates of infection. If each infection results in 0.5 new infections and 16 people are infected, that falls off to ~8, 4, 2, 1 so about doubling. On the other hand if 16,000 people are infected per day it’s still falling off at the same rate, but you get 1000x more infections before it ends.