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by rocha
2240 days ago
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One factor people often forget in the fatality equation is the attack rate, or how many people can be potentially be infected. For the flu, it is around 10% to 15% yearly. For C19, it could be >80% given that there is no natural immunity nor vaccines. Taken that into account, C19 could be at least 40x deadlier than the flul (Flu: 0.1% CFR 10% AR, C19: 1% CFR 40% AR). The 0.1% CFR for the flu is taken from the estimates of the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, which left 100K fatalities in the US. Estimates for the seasonal flu are lower than 0.1%. |
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