[third_I]

Hey, maybe you're right. I don't care that they care to be honest, I mostly care about our future for now.

But you ask "why should they care?"

Well, I profoundly believe (stressing: belief, no crystal ball here) that no, they won't be able to just shrug it off, they stand to lose a pretty f-ing lot, and it has begun.

Ultimately damaging, delaying or even killing the "Belt and Road" project. That's Xi Jinping's #1 thing, by far the biggest international move they were actively executing, and it will certainly hurt if they lose it (I think the correct phrasing is "now that they've lost it", but let's be conservative here, time will tell).

I think the massive drop in foreign investment, combined with sanctions (or worse) may be huge enough to send them into a depth of economic crisis they hadn't experienced in decades (if only because it takes time to re-profile an economy this vast. A decade or more. They've quite possibly 'doomed' the growth of an entire generation).

We could right now be witnessing China's failure to actually reach #1 GDP (at all, or sustainably beyond momentum). This could be the turning point that cements the USA as #1 for another 1-2 decades.[1]

Considering a big part of Chinese population support for the CPC's is based on the premise of economic growth and ever-higher living standards (that's why they shut up and don't ask for more freedoms or political rights, afaik, because they are content to just see their income rising crazy fast), I don't know what this means for the stability of the CPC there (but surely, 10-20 years of recession is a major, fundamental risk to the very existence of, or compliance to, such an oligarchic model).

But yeah, you may be right. We'll just have to agree to disagree on forecasts for now, which should be easy since none of us predicts the future. And my convictions are, again, strong, but loosely held. We need more data (notably, origin of the virus, cause of the spread, etc).

____

[1]: Assuming the USA doesn't worsen their situation too, which seems, ahem... increasingly less likely as we speak, given the abysmal leadership (I don't know how many deaths from COVID it takes to put this country to its knees, but it sure looks like it's trying hard to get there... so weird).

Not to mention the growing hostility towards all foreign powers almost irregardless of their 'allied' status (as if decades of shared history and partnership suddenly meant nothing anymore...)

This to mean rules apply to all, not just China, and everybody might do well to humbly heed that memo. Including national governments in their handling of the situation.

[LargoLasskhyfv]

If you look at their belt and road project from an european point of view on a globe, and not an european centric mercator projection (just use google earth or something like that) and look at the proposed routes there...what do you see?

I see the last leg into europe cut off maybe, but not the rest of the countries along the way which happen to have large populations. And don't seem to care much.

Also Africa.

Furthermore...what should Europe, or any european country do? They voluntarily outsourced much of their production capacity into China. This is going on since decades. I've personally seen/experienced it. Do you think they are capable of resourcing it back in an instant? Could they, with all the environmental standards which are there now?

We live in interesting times!

[third_I]

If US/EU were to tell the rest of the world, in a typical WWI or Cold War "blocks" style fashion, “you're either with us or with China, i.e. against us!”, how many do you think would choose China?

I mean, the West + JP + Oz + etc. is so much bigger than China alone, and the deceitful / lying / financially predatory nature of that country alone is a big deterrent... Not that Europe was better a century ago, or the US as we speak, but...

That's my big fear, tbh. Blocks. Major blocks. If there is too much symmetry in power, it could have dire consequences.

Edit: not "an instant", I said 10 years at least (that's how long it takes to setup a whole new major factory + logistics flow afaik).

Indeed, interesting times. I never thought it'd go this fast this soon tbh. COVID-19 really is provoking a major shift, I think, resurfacing much deeper tensions, much wider than a 'mere' pandemic.

[LargoLasskhyfv]

India, 'the *Stans', Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, the Balkans, Africa. Malaysia. Indonesia. Maybe Russia.

[third_I]

Ha, interesting!... We have several common answers.

I might have put Bolsonaro's Brazil in there, along with a strong authoritarian turn (but the lure of wealth is a strong populist stance, especially if you can deliver soon(tm), and China would have huge freed capacity to intake massive partners (factories etc) once the West is gone).

It's striking to me that many could choose China not for China but rather against the US. They say "the devil you know..." but I wonder, if said devil scares the hell out of you, you might just try your luck with another one. (case for Africa notably)

See why I fear blocks... Could devolve into a cold-WWI way too soon way too fast. And from there... ah, better not think ahead too soon.

[LargoLasskhyfv]

There was a thread about stoicism on HN recently. I tend to watch events along those lines with a cold stare.

'1st world problems', so to speak.

[third_I]

Ah, don't get me started on Stoicism. It changed my life. Helped me "self-cure" a long nasty trend of seasonal depressions. It's nothing short of a superpower to me, a magical skill. I never even dreamed of having such control over myself. And yet, happiness, here we are.

I tend to spend more time than usual thinking about current events, obviously, but mostly to anticipate, prepare myself, navigate the chaos (should I say 'thrive' even? Yes, I should, and I do).

But indeed, with a cold stare.

Plans are useless, but planning...

[Chris2048]

Are you sure about India?

[LargoLasskhyfv]

Not really, but i put it first because it is a direct neighbour, and "gut feeling" :-)