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by AndrewBowman
2248 days ago
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The idea is not just to keep the curve low initially and then abandon all measures, but to figure out how to keep the curve consistently low over time until a vaccine or highly effective treatment is discovered. Basically, when you're in free fall and the parachute slows you down comfortably, don't take that as the cue to cut your chute. Also you may have overlooked adequate testing availability and contact tracing. And even if contact-tracing is lagging, an abundant supply of testing can at least help to ensure that symptomless or incubating-but-not-showing-symptoms-yet infections can be identified early to prevent wildfire-type spread. My guess would be that with more tests and resources available, start with a stuttered type approach, open for 2-3 weeks, then lockdown for 2-3 weeks while we wait for new infections to manifest symptoms and for infected to quarantine until they're not infectious. That could serve as a baseline for what to watch for during reopening, to gauge risk as to whether to repeat with some alteration in timing. |
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