[xyzzy99]

Not to be rude, but given current daily attacks on science and the scientific method, I can't let this stand - I think your meta intuition represents a fundamental misunderstanding of how science works.

It is simply wrong to think that scientific questions can never be definitively settled. Clearly there are some hypotheses that have been difficult (and may be impossible) to prove, for example, Darwin's idea that natural selection is the basis of evolution. There's ample correlative evidence in support of natural selection, but little of the causal data necessary for "proof" (until perhaps recently). In the case of evolution the experiments required to prove that natural selection could lead to systematic genetic change were technically challenging for a variety of reasons.

In the case of climate change, the problem again is that the evidence is correlative and not causal. Demonstrating a causal link between human behavior or CO2 levels and climate change (the gold standard for "proof") is technically challenging, so we are forced to rely on correlations, which is the next best thing. But, you are right, it is not "proof".

Establishing causality can be difficult but not impossible - the standard is "necessary and sufficient". You must show necessity: CO2 increase (for example) is necessary for global warming; if CO2 remains constant, no matter what else happens to the system global temperatures remain constant. And you must also demonstrate sufficiency: temperatures will increase if you increase CO2 while holding everything else constant. Those are experiments that can't be done. As a result, we are forced to rely on correlation - the historical correlation between CO2 and temperature change is compelling evidence that CO2 increases cause global warming, but it is not proof. It then becomes a statistical argument, giving room for some to argue the question remains "unsettled".

My point is that there are plenty of examples in science where things have been proven -- DNA carries genetic information, DNA (usually) has a double stranded helical structure, V=IR, F=Ma, etc. And there are things that are highly likely, but not "proven", e.g., human activity causes of climate change.

While some of the issues you bring are remain unproven, what's really absurd is to think that no scientific questions can be settled.

[dgrin91]

I think this goes against the basis of the scientific method. There is a reason why they say everything is a hypothesis and nothing is every proven. Anyone can propose an alternative model explaining something you call proven; you calling something proven does not inherently make that explanation correct.

This is not mutually exclusive with being against the attacks on science. Just because we shouldn't treat things as proven doesn't mean we can't come to a general consensus on a topic and act as if it was true. Climate change is real. Evolution is real. Don't inject yourself with bleach. Having a small number of quacks say 'its just a hypothesis and actually god is responsible for climate change and evolution' without any evidence doesn't change the general consensus and doesn't mean we have stop everything until we prove the negative.

Ultimate I think most of us agree in principle. Most of what we're discussing here is minor semantic differences in vocabulary.

[dreamcompiler]

Everything in science remains open to be disproved; it wouldn't be science otherwise. That's one way science is different from pure math. Or from religion for that matter.

That said, it is indeed annoying when people who don't understand science interpret "open for disproof" to mean "it's easy to disprove." Quantum mechanics and the second law of thermodynamics could in principle be disproven, but the evidentiary burden would be extremely high. (Insert obligatory Carl Sagan quote here.)

[johnmorrison]

> Establishing causality can be difficult but not impossible - the standard is "necessary and sufficient". You must show necessity: CO2 increase (for example) is necessary for global warming; if CO2 remains constant, no matter what else happens to the system global temperatures remain constant. And you must also demonstrate sufficiency: temperatures will increase if you increase CO2 while holding everything else constant. Those are experiments that can't be done.

No. What is the basis for these claims?

They're both wrong.

It's not true that CO2 increase is necessary for global warming. If the sun got a lot hotter, global temperatures would rise. If non-CO2 GHGs increased, global temperatures would rise. If the overall albedo of the planet changes, global temperatures can rise. There are literally thousands of things that could cause the temperature to rise.

It's also not true that CO2 increase, holding everything else constant, would lead to long term or even medium term warning. We have no idea what the ecosystem will do for any given change in CO2 levels, since there are countless species both who are net producers and net consumers of atmospheric CO2, all of whom have exponential growth and feedback loops.

Even still, even since both of those claims are wrong, CO2 increase may still cause global warming.

Furthermore, the things you claim are proven, are not proven, they are true by definition. All molecules carry information, and the fact that DNA carries genetic information is a direct consequence of the fact that it is DNA. V=IR by definition. F=ma by definition. There's no such thing as a "force" or "mass" or "acceleration" entity per se, these are metrics that are by definition equal in a given physical framework.

There is no way to 'technically' prove anything in science, and the reasons are simple:

(1) The past is gone - you can't access it

(2) You can't see the future

(3) Your knowledge of the present is extremely limited and inaccurate

These are the limitations of the real world, and science does its best to provide utility within that. It only focuses on making future predictions using the observed past as evidence, because you only can do that. You can't check your model in the present, because you can't instantaneously observe anywhere you aren't already observing. Checking your model on the past relies on what you think happened, i.e. what allegedly happened, but there is absolutely no way to truly know.

You can't even really prove anything 'novel' in mathematics, which is the only place where you can actually prove anything, but even there all proofs are effectively just framing something that was already implied axiomatically in a way that allows our limited human minds to see the relevant/useful patterns that aren't immediately obvious to us.

My point is, acting as though you can truly prove anything in science,

> what's really absurd is to think that no scientific questions can be settled

is not only wrong, but in my opinion is a distraction from what science is actually for. It's not about settling questions. Science is never settled, and that's part of what's beautiful about it. It's about reducing our own ignorance and proving our past selves wrong, discovering patterns and models that equip us with the knowledge to build a better world for ourselves and the rest of humanity.

Why lie about being a great soccer player when you're already great at basketball? Let's focus on the beauty of science as a great journey of growth and exploration that accelerates the progress of humanity, instead of trying to make it do something that isn't possible in the real world.

[mistermann]

> No. What is the basis for these claims?

"Science", as it is represented in the media, and in turn repeated and enforced (not unlike religion, interestingly) on social media and in social circles.

As opposed, of course, to actual science.

"Perception is reality." - Lee Atwater, Republican political strategist.

https://www.cbs46.com/news/perception-is-reality/article_835...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Atwater

"Sauron, enemy of the free peoples of Middle-Earth, was defeated. The Ring passed to Isildur, who had this one chance to destroy evil forever, but the hearts of men are easily corrupted. And the ring of power has a will of its own. It betrayed Isildur, to his death."

"And some things that should not have been forgotten were lost. History became legend. Legend became myth. And for two and a half thousand years, the ring passed out of all knowledge."

https://www.edgestudio.com/node/86110

Threads like this one, and many others like it, well demonstrate the precarious situation we are in at this level. Imagine the state of affairs around the average dinner table. Although, it's not too infrequent to hear the common man admit (which is preceded by realization) that they don't know something. As one moves up the modern day general intelligence curve, this capability seems to diminish. What the exact cause of this is a bit of a mystery (24 hour cable propaganda and the complex dynamics of social media is my best guess) - hopefully someone has noticed it and is doing some research, although I've yet to hear it mentioned anywhere. Rather, it seems we are all content to attribute any misunderstanding that exists in modern society to Fox News, Russia, QAnon, or the alt-right. I'm a bit concerned that this approach may not be the wisest, but I imagine we will find out who's right soon enough.

[mistermann]

> I think your meta intuition represents a fundamental misunderstanding of how science works.

It sounds to me like the grandparent is 100% correct.

> It is simply wrong to think that scientific questions can never be definitively settled.

They made no such claim, speaking of intuition.

> Clearly there are some hypotheses that have been difficult (and may be impossible) to prove, for example, Darwin's idea that natural selection is the basis of evolution

I've seen very little evidence in online discussions (Reddit for example) among armchair scientists that the theory of evolution is anything short of cold, hard, scientific fact.

> In the case of climate change, the problem again is that the evidence is correlative and not causal. Demonstrating a causal link between human behavior or CO2 levels and climate change (the gold standard for "proof") is technically challenging, so we are forced to rely on correlations, which is the next best thing. But, you are right, it is not "proof".

Is this (it is not proven) the message they're sending when they say things like "The science is in", just as one example?

> Establishing causality can be difficult but not impossible - the standard is "necessary and sufficient". You must show necessity: CO2 increase (for example) is necessary for global warming; if CO2 remains constant, no matter what else happens to the system global temperatures remain constant. And you must also demonstrate sufficiency: temperatures will increase if you increase CO2 while holding everything else constant. Those are experiments that can't be done. As a result, we are forced to rely on correlation - the historical correlation between CO2 and temperature change is compelling evidence that CO2 increases cause global warming, but it is not proof. It then becomes a statistical argument, giving room for some to argue the question remains "unsettled".

This is not the message I've heard, at all, from any mainstream news source, and it's certainly not the understanding of 95% of "right minded" people I've ever encountered.

> While some of the issues you bring are remain unproven, what's really absurd is to think that no scientific questions can be settled.

What's even more absurd, to me, is how you managed to find a way to interpret his text in that manner. And you're obviously (based on what you've written here), a genuinely intelligent person. Now, imagine how the average person consumes and processes the endless stream of almost pure propaganda, from both "sides" on this topic and many others.

The unnecessarily dishonest manner in which the government and media have chosen to represent (frame) reality to the general public has left an absolutely massive number of easily exploitable attack vectors for "conspiracy theorists" to exploit. And if you are of the opinion that all conspiracy theorists are idiots so you have nothing to worry about, consider the possibility that this too has been similarly misrepresented to you.

If a society chooses to largely abandon things like logic and epistemology in the education of its citizens, thinking propaganda is a suitable replacement, don't be surprised when things don't work out in your favor. If we can barely manage such things here, why should we expect Joe and Jane six-pack to somehow pull it off?

[mistermann]

See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.

Amen.