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by TimJRobinson 2247 days ago
From looking at the current infection graphs Sweden is about to have a very bad time. When 99% of epidemiologists are saying one thing and you have to seek out a contrarion ask yourself if you're really being helpful or just trying to confirm your existing beliefs.
2 comments
mardifoufs 2247 days ago
People have been saying that about Sweden for about 2 months now yet we still don't see any catastrophe happening there. Their hospitals are doing just fine, they aren't overwhelmed and there is no uncontrollable mortality. Why would Sweden suddenly do much worst now? It's curve has flattened and they are even closing emergency ICUs they setup but never had to use.
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NotSammyHagar 2247 days ago
Sweden has a pop of about 10 mil, Switzerland has a pop of about 8.5 mil. Sweden is projected to have about 10,000 deaths, Switzerland under 2,000; accounting for their population differences, Sweden could have avoided 8,000 deaths if they had locked down. 8000! source is IHME, https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden, https://covid19.healthdata.org/switzerland. This also applies to the nordic countries like Denmark, Finland, Norway as compared to Sweden too.

Sweden did start much more slowly that switzerland but they clearly are vastly underperforming in saving their citizens.

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misja111 2247 days ago
The death rate in Sweden is comparatively high but it is too simple to just blame it on their avoidance of a lockdown.

You took Switzerland as an example, but if you would have taken Belgium, Sweden would do actually very well. Still, Belgium took quite strict lockdown measures and in a pretty early stage.

What really seems to have had a significant result on keeping the death rate down, is testing: countries like Germany and Switzerland are testing often and early and have done so already in an early stage of the outbreak. This way they were able to treat patients early and to protect vulnerable patients against others in their surrounding that were infected.

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SpicyLemonZest 2247 days ago
That is an important question to ask, but I think in this case the answer is that it's helpful.

That other 99% really don't seem to know for sure lockdowns are effective; the only arguments I've ever seen them present are "my model says they're effective" or "it would be strange in principle if they weren't". (Some laypeople draw dishonest comparisons to control measures for the Spanish Flu, but epidemiologists know that these measures didn't include orders to stay at home or close all businesses.)

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