[arcticbull]

Nothing there is at all incompatible with what I had to say. In context, the WHO is saying that getting the disease once may not be a lifetime immunity to COVID guarantee and shouldn't be used as the basis for issuance of something along the lines of yellow fever prophylaxis certifications like these [1].

I agree. In fact, its highly unlikely, as with coronaviridae we've seen that the milder the disease the less likely you are to obtain long-term immunity. Even SARS, a much, much more serious disease, gives you 2-3 years as per my reference.

However, that's not what GP was arguing. GP argued broadly that "people who test for antibodies [may not be] immune to future infections." That's extremely unlikely. The question is how many people, and for how long, and then how do we utilize that information. Broadly speaking a positive test for antibodies means you're pretty likely immune at the time the test is taken. Of course the question is how that antibody response changes over time.

I was pretty clear about that: "Generally for as long as you show antibody response you won't be re-infected because that's what antibodies do."

The WHO is saying don't issue one-off certificates of immunity for life on the basis of testing positive for antibodies at one point in time before we know more. I agree.

I suspect a round of infection is likely to tide us over to a broad vaccination program, but we need a study.

[1] https://thegate.boardingarea.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/...

[greedo]

This is crystal clear from the WHO:

""There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.""

They were prompted to issue this because some people were touting this idea of immunity being granted perpetually and allowing people to safely return to work.

"Broadly speaking, a positive test for antibodies means you're pretty likely immune at the time the test is taken."

That's in complete contradiction to what the WHO is saying. Read carefully: There is no evidence.

You're using circular arguments to provide bad information. Something you've consistently been doing.

"...but we need a study."

Why? You've said it's unlikely to be different than other viruses. Of course we need a study, because we don't know.

[arcticbull]

No greedo, that's not the correct interpretation.

There is currently no evidence of X does not mean X is not true. It just means there's no evidence of X being directly true yet. Nothing I said contradicts the WHO.

What I said was that we can reasonably infer from similar coronaviruses (including both more and less severe ones that are up to 90% genetically identical) that immunity is conferred. Also from other viruses. We shouldn't base our global health policy decisions on that until we have conclusive evidence but there's no reason for you to continue with the messaging when all evidence points to immunity being conferred for some duration of time.

Specifically what I said was that we do not have enough evidence to issue prophylaxis certificates, but that chances are good immunity is conferred based on studies of very similar diseases. I also stand by the fact it would be hugely surprising (totally novel) that any of those testing positive right now are actually re-infections due to the limited timescale involved.

Seeing smoke doesn't mean there's fire, but it means there's a pretty good chance of fire. Yeesh.