[wpietri]

I don't trust Evans at all, but I'm going to partially defend that here. There's a long history of technology being absolutely amazing the first time you use it and then not mattering at all. E.g., the Segway was going to revolutionize transport.

The 3D space is particularly prone to this. I count at least 5 waves of 3D innovation going back to the Great Exhibition in 1851. 3D movies were going to revolutionize things twice, in the 1950s and a decade ago. Over and over, this stuff is absolutely amazing for a hot minute and then nobody cares.

Of course, Evans is sold as a brilliant pundit and now VC genius, so if anybody should understand that novelty doesn't equal a business model, it's him. But as you suggest, Upton Sinclair's quote applies here: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it."

[ahupp]

To be fair to the Segway, there's a remarkable number of self-balancing one wheel scooters on the street in SF these days (well, a few months ago). And I think you can trace all of those back to Segway. Sometimes v1 doesn't quite do it.

[_jal]

Those are toys. Back in the day, Kamen was going on about redesigning cities around them.

[vikramkr]

They're toys that a lot of people use as their primary methods of transport, along with other micro mobility solutions like electric scooters amd good old fashioned bikes. In a way, the future took the path of least resistance and redesigned micromobility around cities instead. And we might still end up redesigning cities around some of those options

The segways itself doesnt make much sense to me though. I dont remember too much about the hype when it was released, but like, I'm still unclear about what it was supposed to be able to do that an electrified scooter or bike couldn't.

[mikestew]

I'm still unclear about what it was supposed to be able to do that an electrified scooter or bike couldn't.

When the Segway was released? It could do this one cool trick: actually exist. Electric bikes and scooters (at least at any sort of scale) were at least ten years off.

There were other factors. Ungodly expensive for what it was, and poor enough range that I questioned whether it could get the six-ish miles from the house to Microsoft's main campus with that WA-520 hill to contend with. Now my Boosted Rev scooter can almost do the 7.5 mile round trip to work, with that same WA-520 hill, and for 1/3rd the price the original Segway was going for.

EDIT: oh, wait a minute, the max speed on the original Segway was like 20kph/12mph, right? Yeah, the Rev would easily make the 15 mile round trip if I were riding it that slowly.

[kd5bjo]

> I'm still unclear about what it was supposed to be able to do that an electrified scooter or bike couldn't.

Segways have much better low-speed handling characteristics than bicycles, which makes them safer to intermix with pedestrians: Travelling at a slow amble speed in a crowded environment is extremely difficult on a bicycle, but no big deal for a Segway (or similar)

[mumblemumble]

The primary fault that causes bikes to mix poorly with pedestrians occurs between the handlebars and the helmet. Bikes are, in fact, super easy to operate in close proximity to and at the same speed as people who are on foot. The trick is to not have it between your legs.

[intopieces]

I know the market is small but the Segway was a fantastic upgrade for some people with limited mobility. A classmate of mine in college (2007 or so) who has cerebral palsy got one and it totally changed her ability to get between classes. More maneuverable than a wheelchair, faster than walking with crutches.

[closetohome]

I finally got to try one around 2002, and I have to say it completely changed my opinion. The price didn't matter, the wacky overhyped introduction didn't matter, self-balancing was such a revolutionary technology that I immediately saw where it was going.

Now I ride a Onewheel.

[nsxwolf]

It let you stand up, and it wouldn't fall over.

[chris_wot]

Unless your last name is Bush.

[throwawaybbqed]

Your comment raised the hair on back. I was a naive student in those days. Kamen's build up to the announcement and some of the posts of people who had tried "it" - they broke my heart and took away some of my innocence. You reminded me of all the hype pre-announcement. I couldn't sleep because of it.

I still respect Kamen but take every pre-announcement I hear with a strong degree of skepticism.

[_ea1k]

I think tools like this can be much more than toys: https://www.ewheels.com/product/new-gotway-msuper-x-msx-1600...

60 miles of range!

[Fricken]

Urban planners are still all about micrcomobility

[nordsieck]

> Those are toys.

If you're referring to electric unicycles e.g. SoloWheel, they are probably the perfect compliment to mass transit.

[wongarsu]

That may still happen. The trend is very recent and cities aren't redesigned in a day.

[cguess]

Perhaps they're big in SF, but they exist basically nowhere else in numbers that matter in any way (aside from those super weird Segway tours in like D.C.). Sometimes the tech itself just isn't that good, and sometimes it's a bad idea.

[semerda]

Unlike Magic Leap, wasn’t Segway the first personal transporter with self balancing technology? Ie. Setting a new bar. Hence others followed from that new standard. I’m not aware of Magic Leap setting any new bars.

[ericd]

From what I've heard, the Beast did set some new bars.

[wpietri]

Is the number remarkable? I would be very surprised if those were more than 1% of traffic.

[ahupp]

Entirely possible that they are just more memorable than a regular bike. But they are definitely way more popular than a Segway.

[servercobra]

I have a feeling Magic Leap will be to AR what Segway is to Bird/Jump/etc: right idea, wrong implementation (time/form factor/business model/etc).

[jjeaff]

While I agree with your point, did anyone except the inventor and the marketing team think Segway was going to revolutionize anything? I seem to remember all the revolution talk coming from Segway people before they had even unveiled the thing. It was just a big hyped secret that would "revolutionize" the world.

I remember being extremely underwhelmed when they unveiled it. It seemed like one of those things that had never been invented before, because why would you invent that.

[jkestner]

Definitely not Jobs and Bezos. Jobs said what you say from a different angle—if this thing is revolutionary, why does it look so banal? Bezos pointed out the basic flaw that bedevils personal transportation to this day—will you be allowed to ride it? Guess that's what they mean by 'revolutionary'—you'd have to throw a bunch of established systems out the window to take over.

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/steve-jobs-and-jeff-bezos-meet...

[disqard]

That was a neat article. I had no idea those guys weighed in on the Segway (and gave it a hard pass).

[HideousKojima]

I remember the media regurgitated the marketing for the Segway without questioning it. IIRC it was on the cover of Time or Newsweek, for example

[wpietri]

Many people did think it was revolutionary. "Venture capitalist John Doerr predicted it would reach $1 billion in sales faster than any company in history, and that it could be bigger than the Internet." https://www.wired.com/2015/01/well-didnt-work-segway-technol...

And it wasn't totally insane, for the same basic reasons people think scooters, etc, could revolutionize cities.

[jjeaff]

People who think scooters are going to revolutionize cities are equally insane. Reason being, scooters are ubiquitously available at a reasonable price point and have been for a long time.

The fact that you can rent one by the minute is going to make marginal differences to most people. If people wanted to use electric scooters to get around the city, everyone would own one already.

[catalogia]

The segway at least found a niche with cops and tourists.

[blululu]

Yes, and there are also plenty of solid niche applications of 3d displays. The point is that both the Segway and the MagicLeap were pitched as being the next mobile phone or automobile (something everyone has at all times).

Of course personal electric vehicles seem to be having a renaissance at the moment (scooters) but the buzz:use ratio of modern scooters is much-much lower than the original segway era from 20 years back.

[adamc]

Right, but it was a niche, not a revolution.

[jfim]

The first airplanes were a niche, and so were the first cellphones. Facebook was this social network for ivies.

Just because a technology is currently in a niche position doesn't mean that in the long term it won't be a revolution or won't become mainstream.

[catalogia]

As far as I've seen, Magic Leap doesn't even have a niche. I can think of plausible niches for some hypothetical future AR tech, but none for what Magic Leap has managed to create.

[wpietri]

Oh, sure! But those who didn't live through the hype may not know that it was expected to revolutionize transportation. "Venture capitalist John Doerr predicted it would reach $1 billion in sales faster than any company in history, and that it could be bigger than the Internet." [1]

[1] https://www.wired.com/2015/01/well-didnt-work-segway-technol...

[jiofih]

I remember the hype being so strong that people were (seriously) theorizing some kind of gravity-defying device.

[michaelbuckbee]

And in a slightly different form factor / price point presaged the mass usage of Lime, etc.

[wpietri]

Presaged in the sense that there was also a lot of VC-driven hype that didn't work out, sure. I'll admit there's a slightly higher chance that scooter rental still might turn into a real business. But it's definitely not a given.

[rosywoozlechan]

A little bit early to portray Lime and the like as anything other than VC throwing tons of money at an idea

[Nition]

> There's a long history of technology being absolutely amazing the first time you use it and then not mattering at all.

Most of these, certainly including Segway and Magic Leap, fall apart as soon as you ask ten random non-tech people if they'd actually buy one though.

[mbesto]

> I don't trust Evans at all

Anyone that follows him closely on Twitter Should know this. He's the type of person that just throws predictions everywhere so he can say "I told you so", but never owns up the ones that don't crystallize.

[valuearb]

The main reaction to the Segway unveiling was “huh? This is what you were prattling about?”

No one except their PR interns thought it was going to revolutionize anything.

[tozeur]

I’ve had that exact opinion of him for years.