[robocat]

NZ gets tourists from everywhere (3.6M tourists in nation with 5M population), and 1/3 of cases are NZers returning home from all over the world (we travel internationally a lot).

I don’t have the sequencing, but there is no reason to think NZ would only “catch” one strain.

[goatforce5]

From the above article:

> The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington State, according to their paper.

> A separate study had found that New York strains had been imported from Europe. The death rate in New York was similar to that in many European countries, if not worse.

It's no so much that a particular area only has one strain, but that the predominant strain that takes hold may have more favourable outcomes.

[robocat]

There is zero reason to think there is a “predominant strain that takes hold” in NZ. We get a lot of tourists from Asia, Europe and the US. Early on, the majority of cases in NZ were returning kiwis, who returned from all over the world.

NZ is highly connected because (a) it is a world tourist destination and (b) NZers travel all over the world (including a lot to Europe).

[goatforce5]

And yet the article i've linked to has researchers saying different areas (which are as well, if not, far better connected than NZ) have predominant strains with differing characteristics.

[robocat]

There is rank speculation about strains and temperatures - some of it based on case rates and death rates which is just pointless if comparing NZ and say the US because our situations are radically different.

1/3 of NZ infections are returning NZers, making up the vast majority of initial infections detected weeks ago.

The community transmissions are spread around the country, and unlikely to have a single super-spreader as the source. Our health system (including ICU wards) is vastly under-utilised at present, so any cases are getting the best care possible, and we have first world healthcare. There is no elective surgery at present, and our hospitals have been funded by our socialised healthcare. We could do with more PPE gear, but we have sufficient because our health system is not overloaded, because our government listened to good advice.

Let’s pick NY as comparison: confirmed “132,467 cases, including 9,101 confirmed coronavirus deaths and 4,582 probable coronavirus deaths“. Assuming death rate 0.5% after 3 weeks, then actual cases is in the millions. With that sort of community transmission then strains could make a difference. NY state has approx 4x the population of NZ, and 1000x more deaths.

NZ has a few thousand cases, NY has a few million cases. NZ acted fast and hard as soon as community transmission was detected. That explains the difference in deaths, and you can’t jump to any conclusions about death rates because the relevant numbers are too imprecise.

Either way, I expect NZ will sequence the different clusters, so in time we will know