[pacala]

[Not the person you addressed this question to].

I don't. Do you? We are 3 months into this mess and have wildly divergent facts that can't be reasonably reconciled.

Some attempts:

* The regular flu season uses 75% capacity of the system. A disease that's 3x worse will lead to 225% capacity needs.

* Maybe this disease is remarkably more contagious than the flu. In a tightly packed place like NYC, you might get all the cases that you're ever going to get flowing through the system within x weeks, whereas a less infectious flu season might trickle the same caseload within 2x weeks.

* This is out of the ballpark deadly, 10x-100x worse than the flu.

[lazyasciiart]

Those aren't reconciliations, they are contradicting the assertion that this is just another seasonal flu by identifying a way in which it is worse. I don't know what you mean about having "wildly divergent facts"?