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by kgwgk 2252 days ago
That's from one month ago and it doesn't mean that those people would be dead equally if they had not been infected.

Actually the official number is grossly under-reporting COVID-19 deaths:

"We estimate that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy is 52,000 ± 2000 as of April 18 2020, more than a factor of 2 higher than the official number."

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v...
1 comments
arcticbull 2252 days ago
Time will tell, I suppose!
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kgwgk 2252 days ago
In the weeks from March 1 to April 4 there were 19824 people death in a subset of municipalities in Lombardia where data is already available, while in the last five years the number of deaths in the comparable period was in the 6767 - 7248 range. This subset normally accounts for 73% of the deaths in the region so we can estimate that there were 17000 excess deaths (27200 vs 9200-9900).

Less than 9000 COVID-19 deaths were reported in Lombardia by that time. If you think they are too generous classifying deaths as being caused by the infection, what would you say that caused the death of more than twice the usual number of people during the period?

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