| > So, given that I was quoting global figures for the flu, on an apples-to-apples basis it seems like covid is about 10x the flu at the moment, in the US, ignoring the fact that it could be much worse without the lockdowns. At about 10 weeks into the H1N1 influenza pandemic, we had a CFR of between 0.1 and 5.1% depending on the country as compared to 0.07 to 14.93% for COVID. H1N1 ended up with an actual IFR of 0.02% or one fifth of the low end of the CFR range. Honestly, it's probably a maximum of three times as bad as H1N1, especially when you consider Italy later admitted of its 13.22% CFR, 88% of that number was "people who happened to die while COVID positive" instead of "likely died of COVID". [1] Huge deltas in CFR are likely attributable to mess-ups along the way and how COVID deaths are counted. 10X as bad is likely on the very highest end as Sweden hasn't locked down anyone, suggesting common sense instead, and their new case rate flattened out right alongside the rest of the world. 1000X is totally out of proportion with the data. [2] I suppose we don't know for sure but we do have two and a half million data points which is enough to make a pretty good guess. It's kinda starting us in the face that it's kinda like a bad flu except worse for old people, who we should lock down and look after as we build herd immunity. [1] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-... [2] https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Canada&location=Sw... |