[pacala]

I agree, the fatality rates reported in the media smells of overhype. A lot. Over here in WA, the testing policy is along the lines of "Test patients hospitalized with severe lower respiratory illness or people working in critical sectors, and then maybe consider people with 100.4+ fevers and/or shortness of breath" [0]. That population selection has an elevated death risk, and also muddles the positive/negative ratio: symptomatic people test positive, whereas health workers test negative. We get high negative test ratios, falsely indicating we're early in the outbreak, and also high mortality ratios among positives, falsely indicating a high fatality rate. Extrapolating to the entire population is wrong and irresponsible.

The flu and vaccine point is also well taken. For the entirety of human history the flu was a health risk for the elderly and life expectancy [excluding under 5s] was 60-70 [1]. The contemporary expectation that everyone should make it into their 80s and 90s is a strong outlier.

OTOH, people counter by pointing out that NYC is already at 0.16 [14000 / 8400000] fatality rate [2], and it's unclear how many more until this wave recedes. Then anecdotes about dead healthcare workers, reinfections, mutation rates, etc.

[0] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/...

[1] https://www.quora.com/Excluding-child-mortality-what-is-the-...

[2] https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Track...