[zuminator]

Let's not lose sight of the reason why lockdowns were advised in the first place.

Absent the data from widespread testing, the spread of the disease was consistent with two epidemiological models -- low-contagion/high-mortality and high-contagion/low-mortality. In the latter model, there's not much to be done to stop the disease from infecting the population at large, and not that much that needs to be done, since the vast majority of people will emerge unscathed. But in the former model, it matters tremendously -- doing nothing will slowly but surely result in vast loss of life but quarantines can stop the disease dead in its tracks.

Therefore the most cautious course of action, from a public health perspective, was to assume the former and proceed with a regime of extreme social distancing. Unfortunately doing so had dire economic consequences.

[lazylizard]

What if the swedes are trying to find out how to live with this virus? Like..what if there were no cure and no immunity? Unlike other governments who are betting that there will be a resolution in the near future?

[edoo]

They knew within a week or two that the lockdowns had no effect. We converged right to the same level as Sweden. That they kept pushing it is insane.

[creato]

What explains the difference between NY and CA if it isn't lockdowns? The difference in death per capita between the two is staggering (nearly 30x more people per capita have died in NY than CA).

[natrik]

Lots of things could explain it. Here are some:

- The way deaths are counted in each state

- Daily Temperature

- Comorbidity percentage difference for residents - https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Track...

[weaksauce]

> - Daily Temperature

it's been unseasonably cool in socal for the duration of this so i doubt it's that.

[ImprovedSilence]

Also population density. In NYC, a higher % of the population is touching shared surfaces such as doors and elevator buttons just to get outside.

[eanzenberg]

That wouldn't affect IFR

[arcticbull]

We don't have an IFR, we have a CFR, which would be affected. Remember, all we know thus far is the numerator and a low-confidence denominator.

[SpicyLemonZest]

The stay-at-home order can't itself have made a 30x difference, because New York only imposed it 3 days later than California. California started social distancing in general earlier and better, but I don't think anyone would dispute that social distancing in general matters. (In fact I think that's the obvious explanation, that due to the nature of NYC many people can't social distance to a useful degree.)

[ggm]

Air pollution? Well no. L.A. smog. But, there are signs higher NO and diesel particulate are a problem.

[arcticbull]

To be fair, the US engaged in lockdowns well after the situation had run its course in China so we had the data. It feels much more like a panic reaction than a question of which epidemiological model it best fit.

[jtbayly]

No way. China did an even more intense lockdown. If anything, the data from China indicated we should have done more, sooner. And that’s assuming you can even trust the data from China. Which you can’t.

[arcticbull]

Yeah, that's what I meant by ran its course. We had something like 80,000 outcomes to base a course of action on.