[NovemberWhiskey]

> Companies that intentionally run with razor-thin balance sheets and don't have any buffers built in to withstands shocks, are more fragile than companies with some buffer, all other things being equal.

That's true; but it's not at all the statement you made originally, is it? Do you actually have some data that suggests that dividend-paying companies are more likely to be run as you described?

Contrary example: AAPL in its Q1 2020 filing reported ~$200bn of cash, equivalents and marketable securities on hand. AAPL also pays a dividend.

Moreover: it's absolutely not to the benefit of shareholders to have a company fail just in order to pay a dividend (unless the dividend yield is something ridiculous); shareholders are often interested in a combination of growth and yield, and the value of the stock going to zero as the company fails is a bad outcome.

In fact, companies that pay a dividend by definition have a buffer. They can chose not to pay a dividend.

[Saaster]

That was however the intent of the statement: Companies that pay dividends or make share buy-backs are more vulnerable in a crisis [compared to otherwise identical companies who build a cash buffer].

I disagree that companies that pay a dividend by definition have a buffer. If the income plummets (like in non-essential retail at the moment), they have no hypothetical dividend buffer to fall back on, that if not paid out would keep them in business.

[NovemberWhiskey]

> That was however the intent of the statement: Companies that pay dividends or make share buy-backs are more vulnerable in a crisis [compared to otherwise identical companies who build a cash buffer].

That's a false dichotomy though.

Option three is what, for example, most of the profitable/zero-dividend tech firms do - which is to reinvest to boost market share, perform research and development and enter new businesses instead of returning a dividend to shareholders.

No dividends; but no cash pile either. Under your theory, those companies are no better equipped to deal with a crisis.