[DenisM]

>"duh, restaurants going out of business was a no-brainer"

Obviously yes.

> Short restaurant equipment suppliers because up to 15% of restaurants could go out of business?

Well, maybe not.

Lots of restaurants will go out of business, but if the demand for dining is still there the surviving restaurants will expand absorb it. They will not necessarily reuse old equipment from bankrupt restaurants, they might instead buy new equipment e.g. to make it uniform with the equipment they already have.

As a matter of fact, if the demand persist the increased turmoil in the restaurant businesses can only mean more equipment sales, not less.

[Spooky23]

The problem with shorting is you need to get the timing right. Today, you need insight into how the government relief will work out as well as other factors.

Even if you’re right about the outcome, you can still be wiped out If your timing is off!

[icelancer]

Also this is like shorting TSLA. Yeah, no kidding, a lot of people think it is going to zero. The short pressure is massive, which causes huge bid-ask spreads in the put options, which makes it hard for you to get a price that might make sense based on your evaluations.

It's not enough to just be directionally right and even timed correctly - you have to get a good price, too.

[nullc]

That industry seems pretty effective at buying used equipment though. There is a pretty liquid market for it, it doesn't need to be super pretty, and it's all pretty durable.

One factor in survival of those businesses may be how well they exploit their fallen brethren for their own growth.