[Taniwha]

Yeah but the Tailrisk guy is not an epidemiologist, he's out of treasury and naturally has is more economy focused outlook.

One person's "unreasonable" can be another's "sensible caution"

[mikedilger]

You're right about that guy. So I'll be more specific. The model that shows large numbers like 14,400 (not even 100,000) presumes we do NO contact tracing at all (not just slower contact tracing). I'd wager most people would agree that is an unreasonable assumption.