[joe_the_user]

To repeat: don't take this as a sign that Korea believes it has successfully managed the outbreak.

South Korea has had fewer deaths than other nations, South Korea has a semi-open economy now. What better model for managing the outbreak is there? (The condition of Europe and the US look very dismal) It's kind of strange seeing this claim with no substantiation beside "repeat" apparently staying on the top of HN for a while.

South Korea hasn't entirely averted the danger and is clearly still keeping it in mind. The virus is going to be around for a while and normalizing life is needed and it seems South Korea has to the testing and contact tracing infrastructure needed for this. What is the counter-argument?

[randomsearch]

I think it’s too early to judge success. Most countries haven’t even been through one wave yet. We’re going to have to live with this for years.

[joe_the_user]

"I think it’s too early to judge success."

Uh really?

South Korea suppressed an epidemic and strengthened the tools they had for suppressing epidemics, maintaining economic strength and social cohesion.

How are they not best position in the stage of managing the epidemic (the appropriate term used by the ggp).

Oh, I know one really bad answer people are ready with - they didn't let the virus burn through their population to acquire herd immunity. The degree to which any other approach is going to leave a society ready to deal with new waves of this seems really, really low. Certainly, current US events aren't preparing for any future crisis.

[randomsearch]

Well, for one thing, people were saying the same about Singapore, but the number of cases there has grown exponentially. A pandemic isn't over in a few months, we have to look at it over years.

For example: behavioural scientists tell us that people will only stand one major lockdown; using that lockdown early to keep deaths to a minimum initially may not be the best strategy. So thinking about the long-term is essential.

Not saying you're wrong that South Korea has a good track record to this point. I am saying you're wrong to extrapolate that out to the likely arrival of a vaccine programme in 2021.

[hooo]

They didn't even have a lock down like in other countries and still managed this.

[bamboozled]

Japan apparently has a much lower death rate and number of infections too.

Should we trust those numbers? I'm going to say no.

[hadtodoit]

In that case I wouldn't trust any country not to fudge the numbers. As far as Japan goes, I believe the numbers are close enough. They have a very high population of elderly and smokers. People would be dropping like flies and making a lot of noise about it if the numbers were far worse.

Social distancing, wearing masks, staying home when sick, cleaning all fomites frequently are things the Japanese were doing before this pandemic culturally, I imagine those actions are in over drive now.

I'm reminded of when the subway tunnels in Japan flooded and the water was so clear you'd have thought it was a swimming pool. Even Chinese netziens commented on how absurdly clean Japan is when the pictures emerged.

[tooltalk]

Japan had been under-testing and under-reporting to save their face -- or the Olympics. As recent as last week, their health official confessed they had a testing capacity for only 200 per day in Tokyo. Japan's case number and death started skyrocketing since the Olympics postponement on March 24 and nobody thinks it's just a coincidence.

Also note Japan has a large elderly population, or about 32+K, who die unnoticed in solitude every year.

[hadtodoit]

Japan was certainly trying to save the Olympics but when it became clear nobody would attend, numbers "skyrocketed" the same way US numbers did, ie. we started actually testing people and confirming what everyone else already knew, that this thing spread like wildfire.

Testing isn't even useful at this point, we should operate under the assumption everyone has or will have it, and just treat those who are having complications. You don't need to get tested to know you have a cold, just deal with it.

[tooltalk]

Sure, which is to say, Japan intentionally deceived the world -- they under-tested and under-reported their case numbers to project a false perception of safety and control before the Olympics.

[hadtodoit]

We didn't even have FDA approved test kits until last month, I imagine that similar agencies exist in Japan which required government intervention to expedite the process. I know you want to believe they had nefarious intentions but bureaucracy and incompetence are often the culprit when it comes to government.

In the US it wasn't just a matter of getting tests made, but getting all the various states and private testing centers connected so the federal government could aggregate the data. Smaller countries or those with socialized/public healthcare had an easier time at this because their systems were already unified. Tiny countries like South Korea trying to talk down the US for not getting tests out as fast is them is humorous. California alone has greater landmass and 80% of SK's population.

Besides that, Japan is still doing very well despite their population density meeting/exceeding many major hotspots. And the US is likely out of the woods, we should definitely be back to normal next month.

[cameldrv]

Weirdly, smoking appears to be protective from COVID. 13.7% of people in the U.S. are smokers, but only 1.3% of COVID hospitalizations are of smokers.