I think everyone would like better data but one point I can follow is that scared people are bad consumers. I can’t find the exact story but I recall some research on Denver vs Philadelphia where the hard lockdown came out ahead later and the psychology of dealing with the disease contributed to this.
There's not data about the impact of either policy choice.
For example, bar and restaurant traffic would probably be down quite a lot regardless of lockdowns.
For reopening, a potential downside of doing it too early is that the spread rapidly spirals out of control again, with greater death and real panic ensuing.
I think everyone would like better data but one point I can follow is that scared people are bad consumers. I can’t find the exact story but I recall some research on Denver vs Philadelphia where the hard lockdown came out ahead later and the psychology of dealing with the disease contributed to this.