[bequanna]

NYC is absolutely not representative of the rest of the country. In fact, they appear to be the hardest hit locale in the world in no small part due to their poor and delayed response.

I agree, reopening NYC would be a mistake, but large portions of the US (especially rural areas) remain largely unaffected by this.

The average age of death in my state (MN) is 88 with preexisting conditions. Our death rate is 0.0019% (!) with a flattened curve for some time now. Most of the US is not NYC.

[mgsouth]

The point being, an unusually large percentage of the people who contract CV19 die. Lower density == longer time to hit X% infected and Y% dead, but you'll still get there. (With caveats that X is a bit lower with lockdown, and Y gets higher when medical system is overloaded.)

Minnesota death rate is, as you say, currently at 19/million, but is growing at about 10%/day. The curve fits WA state's; continuing along that curve, WA currently has 79/million and is growing by 3%/day.

[downerending]

The question is not "How many will die?". Sadly, many will.

The question is "How much net difference will different reopening schedules make?". The answer to that is unclear, but remaining in lockdown for six months could easily kill more people (net).