[jsnell]

R0 isn't a fundamental constant, but just an estimated average. It's affected both by human behavior and random chance. In this case, the town had a very early superspreader event, which shifted them far ahead of the curve.

A FP rate that high will make a very significant difference in the results. (How large a difference depends on whether the 15% is a raw number or if it's been adjusted based on the expected test specificity and sensitivity. One would hope nobody would just report the raw numbers. But since all we've gotten from this study is basically a press release, expecting scientific rigor seems ill advised.)