[gns24]

It's worth noting that the German study in Gangelt was done because it was considered a hot-spot - this wasn't an attempt to estimate the infection rate across the country. It does however demonstrate that even in places where lots of people have had it, herd immunity still looks a long way off.

[gridlockd]

It is worth noting indeed.

However, if we apply the estimated mortality rate (0.37%) based on that to 11500 deaths in hot-spot New York, it would amount to over 3 million cases, again roughly 15% of the population.

Now perhaps Germans are so much healthier and their healthcare is so much better, making their real mortality rate so much lower. It's all speculation at this point, either way.