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by IAmEveryone 2258 days ago
> Imagine if 10+% of the population already had COVID and where immune, we'd be much closer to heard immunity than we currently think.

We’d be about 1/7 the way there. Meaning we’d see another 6x current deaths to get through this. That’s not even close to acceptable.

And the 10% aren’t realistic, anyway. At least nationally. Assuming nationwide rates of 10%, then scaling up by death numbers, would put infection rates far above 100% in New York.
2 comments
MikeAmelung 2258 days ago
Why would the rest of the country have the exact same percentage of infected as New York City, the only place in the country where most people don't own cars, and almost everyone takes cramped public transportation. NYC clearly has a MUCH higher infection rate than anywhere else in the country.
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IAmEveryone 2258 days ago
> Why would the rest of the country have the exact same percentage of infected as New York City?

I didn't say that. In fact, I said the exact opposite: to get to 10% nationwide while explaining the rather large per capita differences in deaths, you'd need either negative infection rates in some places (say, Alaska), or >100% infection rates in hotspots. Neither is possible.

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dorgo 2258 days ago
>That’s not even close to acceptable.

Is there a choice?

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