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by jvdizzle
2260 days ago
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We're facing massive unemployment that could last an undetermined amount of time. We have models of previous economic downturns but this one is different because there is so much uncertainty with this virus. When UI benefits are exhausted, consumer behavior will change dramatically. People will come out of this a lot more conscious about what they're spending money on. The fact that unemployment in the US is expected to peak at 20% means a lot of the country (and world) will have been affected. How will consumer demand look for the years to come after the pandemic? We may not see a quick comeback in terms of employment because companies will be looking to replace productivity through automation as insurance against future disruptions. Additionally, small businesses which employed a large percentage of people will have been devastated by the economic shutdown. Many will have folded and won't be there when the economy resumes again. In terms of socialization, bars and restaurants aren't going to magically reappear. It's going to take time, years in some areas, to rebuild downtown. I think one thing is for certain: there are a lot of opportunities for tech to fill the gaps, but it won't be the same consumer world as it was before the pandemic. It's hard to predict what exactly those opportunities are-- this is uncharted territory. |
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Cities are screwed.
Banks will be loaded thanks to bailouts and further consolidate.
You may see a leftward political swing and unrest as safe healthcare, education, insurance, government and corporate jobs get zapped.
Some of these effects will be cascading. Millions of people will be off COBRA in a couple of months. Those health insurance premiums that keep hospitals, doctors, pharmacies, and insurance people employed will create a trickle down.