It doesn't matter if the number is 5% with a low infection rate, or 0.5% with a very high infection rate: both will lead to very large numbers of dead people unless we take severe action early on.
And so far they've been right. Covid-19 is causing huge amounts of excess mortality, even when compared to a really bad flu year.
Source? Europe shows excess mortality spiking to a similar level as the 2017-2018 flu season: https://www.euromomo.eu/
And that’s with elective procedures being cancelled and everyone scared to go to the hospital for any reason. Here’s some new data indicating that half of the excess mortality in England might not be caused by COVID-19 itself: https://archive.is/2eKCW
It doesn't matter if the number is 5% with a low infection rate, or 0.5% with a very high infection rate: both will lead to very large numbers of dead people unless we take severe action early on.
And so far they've been right. Covid-19 is causing huge amounts of excess mortality, even when compared to a really bad flu year.