[malkuth23]

I think the elective treatment theory is a better point than my driving guess. If you have a disease and your options are to get surgery or take medicine, you are probably being pushed towards non-surgical options, even if that would have overall worse results on average. This might ultimately raise the mortality rate, but would temporarily depress it.

Anecdotally, I definitely find myself trying to be safer right now. I have avoided ladder work on my house and been super careful when using a knife. I just do not want to go to a hospital right now.

I think looking at the overall death statistics are super interesting though. If traffic deaths fall, that is in some ways a byproduct of Covid. If more cancer patients die, that is also a byproduct. All of this goes into factoring how much damage and protection both the disease and the quarantine orders have caused.