[mdorazio]

Because your target consumers are watching more YouTube channels than ever before. Example: as a 3D printing and general "maker" enthusiast, there used to only be a few channels putting out a few videos a month in these categories. Now I'm subbed to probably a dozen and their release frequency is increasing while the overall ad budget has probably not grown much. On a per-channel, per-minute basis, the dollar value has thus gone down.

In other words, creator and content growth outstripped ad spend growth.

[busterarm]

> In other words, creator and content growth outstripped ad spend growth.

And by several orders of magnitude. I'm surprised at how many highly intelligent people out there have failed to grasp these basics.

It's also sort of a winner-take-all market. Established channels for each customer segment will capture all of the revenue. Everyone else fights for scraps.

If you look at art/culture trends through modern history, teens aspire to the accomplishments of the generation before them. The clearest sign of YouTube being "done" was all of the surveys of teenagers aspiring to be Youtubers.

[Ajedi32]

Ah, so the important part isn't that creator or content growth is outstripping ad spend; it's that viewer growth is outstripping ad spend. (Which means less revenue per view.) That makes way more sense.

[mdorazio]

I'd say it's both. More viewers, so per-view revenue is down, but more creators and videos as well so per-video revenue is also down due to increased competition. The net result is what you see today on channels - ad revenue used to be plenty for creators, but now they're plugging sponsors, merch, Patreon, and anything else they can to make up the shortfall.

[Ajedi32]

True, but that's a separate issue from the one being discussed in this article. Increased competition between creators may make it more difficult to get viewers, but it doesn't directly hurt CPM.