[kevin_b_er]

The virus has a reported 12-20% hospitalization rate. Once they overfill in any given region, the death rate and the hospitalization rate become the same.

We can argue about small percents for CFR, which only apply given healthcare resources, but if we do not stay under the hospital thresholds by some means, we get a catastrophic death rate that is comparable to the 1918 Spanish Flu, which had something in the neighborhood of a 10-20% fatality rate.

Unless we somehow find an astonishing number of people are true asymptomatic, this will hold. The Iceland survey does not yet count, as they surveyed and tested and found a goodly number of people positive, but we haven't seen the followup of how many develop symptoms where it can take 11.5 days in 97.5% of all cases to develop.

So, we are in a Class 5 pandemic, one of similar severity to the 1918 Spanish Flu. We just have oxygen and ventilators now for pneumonia. Once we run out of those resources, we get to "manage the flow of bodies". If we get the infection rate of the 2009 swine flu at 60.8 million cases, we stand to lose up to 7 million lives in the United States alone.

[alexbanks]

I would challenge most of your numbers but I understand your sentiment.