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by andromeduck 2265 days ago
We absolutely do know where it started. Prehaps not precisely in physical space but that 13 of the first 41 cases had no connection to the seafood market is very strong evidence that whatever the source may be, it was socially and physically proximate to the market just like the lab but not likely the market itself.

To compare this to Iraq is absolutely preposterous and fallacious. The two have absolutely nothing in common and nobody here is suggesting we invade China over it but sure as hell they ought to be held accountable.
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throwanem 2265 days ago
Do you not think people come from out of town, sometimes from quite far out of town, to sell food at a city market? That's how they work here in Baltimore, and anyone who's ever been to Lexington Market, or even seen a picture of what the crowds are like there (1), can have no trouble imagining how effective a transmission vector it would be for any contagious pathogen hitching a ride in an out-of-town vendor there. Why should things work differently in Wuhan?

"Held accountable" is a rhetorical phrase that was much used then, too. (2) So it's an interesting thing to find in an argument that this situation and that one are totally unalike.

(1) https://www.wypr.org/sites/wyprmain/files/styles/x_large/pub...

(2) https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2001/nov/28/iraq.brianwhit...

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andromeduck 2265 days ago
This market is not known to have sold bats and by all accounts it did not. Consuming bats is a southern thing not a central thing.

Your theory also doesn't along with the evidence, that the first known cases had a significant population with no known connection to the market, 27 with connection, 14 without; and that other than the market there are no other obvious connections. If it were just some hawker you'd expect a much stronger connection to the market. And over a longer period.

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throwanem 2265 days ago
I had a theory around guano used for fertilizer acting as a fomite, but found some research an hour ago that suggests SARS doesn't remain viable via that route, so SARS-CoV-2 probably doesn't either.

Do we know that bats are the only (or only likely) nonhuman host? Was there a significant population of cases with a known connection to the lab?

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andromeduck 2264 days ago
Pangolins Malasia I think are the next closest source genetically. China imports from there as well as Africa for TCM so but the known strains from bats are still match much much better.
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