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by anonymouz 2255 days ago
Aside from the arguments others have already replied to, your numbers are wrong by an order of magnitude. 280K/year comes out to 767/day on average. Yesterday 777 people died of Covid, so, roughly, it seems to be doubling the death rate at the moment (not quite true, since we shouldn't compare to average, and maybe some of these people would have died now anyway, but +100% is a closer estimate than an increase by a single digit percentage). Note that the number of deaths/day are still on an increase, and without lockdown it'd have been expected to increase exponentially for a while longer.

Of course, things get even worse when the disease is left unchecked or hospitals become overwhelmed; some tows in the Bergamo province in Italy reached daily death rates that where 6 times as high as the ones from last year in the same time period.

Edit: The actual numbers for NY show a more than 2x increase so far, see here https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/corona...